* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL022016 05/29/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 37 36 36 34 32 31 29 27 24 23 22 22 24 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 33 35 31 32 31 30 28 26 23 22 21 21 23 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 34 33 34 34 36 38 41 44 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 22 26 22 25 30 25 25 18 19 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 0 1 -6 -7 0 -9 -2 -6 -2 -3 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 169 159 160 170 178 173 212 188 225 226 259 271 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 25.6 24.6 24.4 24.3 23.8 23.5 23.5 23.3 23.9 23.5 23.4 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 108 99 97 97 93 92 91 90 94 91 90 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 90 83 82 82 79 78 78 77 79 76 76 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.9 -56.6 -56.7 -57.0 -56.9 -57.0 -57.3 -57.2 -57.4 -57.2 -57.3 -57.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 6 3 6 4 7 4 5 2 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 64 64 61 59 54 52 52 48 51 51 51 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -16 -3 0 -2 15 -22 -6 -23 -7 -20 -18 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 11 32 39 22 50 0 18 14 18 -3 16 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 0 -4 2 -1 0 1 0 4 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 138 91 41 17 0 10 0 28 15 20 40 68 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.0 32.4 32.7 33.0 33.5 33.9 34.2 34.6 35.0 35.3 35.5 35.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.4 79.5 79.7 79.6 79.5 78.9 78.1 77.4 76.8 76.1 75.5 75.0 74.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -18. -21. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -21. -21. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -12. -13. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.5 79.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 BONNIE 05/29/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.24 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.3 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 BONNIE 05/29/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 BONNIE 05/29/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 36 33 35 31 32 31 30 28 26 23 22 21 21 23 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 32 34 30 31 30 29 27 25 22 21 20 20 22 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 29 31 27 28 27 26 24 22 19 18 17 17 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 22 24 20 21 20 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT