* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022016 05/28/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 40 42 42 41 40 40 39 36 35 35 35 37 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 40 34 36 35 34 33 33 30 28 29 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 33 30 33 34 36 38 42 44 46 48 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 20 23 23 22 24 27 29 20 17 12 19 10 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -5 -8 0 -10 -2 -8 0 -5 1 -4 -2 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 187 185 186 186 172 187 180 206 197 246 238 295 291 337 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.6 25.8 27.0 26.2 24.7 24.3 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.8 23.6 24.0 24.0 24.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 110 111 123 114 99 96 94 93 92 93 91 93 91 91 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 96 96 104 96 83 81 80 79 78 78 76 77 76 76 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.9 -56.8 -56.9 -56.9 -56.7 -57.0 -56.9 -57.1 -57.5 -57.2 -57.2 -56.8 -56.8 -56.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 6 4 7 5 7 4 6 3 6 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 50 54 57 61 60 53 49 49 51 51 53 55 56 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 6 5 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -39 -17 -20 -25 -9 -9 3 -36 -11 -14 -18 -47 -60 -49 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 13 47 28 19 27 36 17 -5 27 -6 17 -8 -9 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 8 9 6 2 0 -2 0 -1 0 2 3 6 8 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 418 358 270 189 108 21 -2 16 21 26 52 29 26 26 26 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.1 30.7 31.3 31.8 32.5 33.0 33.4 33.7 34.0 34.2 34.5 34.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.5 77.4 78.3 78.9 79.5 79.9 79.6 78.9 78.2 77.6 77.0 76.6 76.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 6 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 12. 11. 10. 10. 9. 6. 5. 5. 5. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.5 76.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 TWO 05/28/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.38 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.40 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 8.5% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.5% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 TWO 05/28/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 TWO 05/28/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 40 34 36 35 34 33 33 30 28 29 29 30 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 38 32 34 33 32 31 31 28 26 27 27 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 33 27 29 28 27 26 26 23 21 22 22 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 19 21 20 19 18 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT