* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022016 05/28/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 41 43 43 42 39 39 38 37 37 38 40 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 36 39 39 37 35 35 33 33 33 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 33 30 34 36 38 40 42 46 49 51 53 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 15 16 20 21 19 24 18 34 20 21 12 23 15 22 11 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -3 -4 -1 -6 -8 -4 -6 0 -5 -2 -3 -5 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 217 215 196 185 181 178 173 196 199 214 215 253 259 264 257 286 300 SST (C) 25.7 25.4 25.4 25.4 26.9 24.8 24.0 23.7 23.7 23.8 24.4 24.8 25.1 26.0 26.2 25.9 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 111 109 108 108 122 101 94 93 93 93 97 100 102 109 111 109 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 96 95 94 103 85 80 79 79 79 82 83 84 89 90 89 86 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.7 -56.8 -56.8 -56.8 -57.0 -56.9 -57.4 -57.0 -57.5 -57.2 -57.3 -56.9 -56.9 -56.4 -56.7 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.6 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 4 7 4 8 4 7 4 5 3 4 3 6 700-500 MB RH 52 49 51 54 57 63 58 52 50 50 54 55 52 52 54 57 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -35 -34 -20 -21 -18 -13 -5 -27 -22 -14 -8 -24 -49 -53 -75 -49 200 MB DIV 9 -13 12 50 34 -1 41 36 0 4 19 6 6 -6 15 -3 15 700-850 TADV 5 5 9 9 4 2 0 -6 0 1 -1 1 -1 2 3 1 3 LAND (KM) 524 445 376 286 189 50 -6 14 32 40 71 61 97 131 145 163 181 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.5 30.1 30.7 31.3 32.3 32.9 33.3 33.6 33.9 34.1 34.5 34.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.2 76.2 77.2 78.0 78.8 79.7 79.7 79.0 78.2 77.5 76.7 75.9 75.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 5 3 4 4 3 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 3 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.8 75.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 TWO 05/28/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.37 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.45 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 8.3% 5.9% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.7% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.7% 2.5% 1.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 TWO 05/28/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 TWO 05/28/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 40 36 39 39 37 35 35 33 33 33 34 35 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 38 34 37 37 35 33 33 31 31 31 32 33 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 30 33 33 31 29 29 27 27 27 28 29 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 22 25 25 23 21 21 19 19 19 20 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT