* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/12/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 89 89 87 80 71 67 63 66 67 67 67 65 61 58 51 V (KT) LAND 85 87 89 89 87 80 71 67 63 66 67 67 67 65 61 58 51 V (KT) LGEM 85 87 88 86 84 76 69 64 61 62 63 63 64 64 64 62 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 12 10 10 12 14 13 5 5 4 9 6 5 4 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 4 7 10 11 7 0 -1 2 3 0 0 2 0 2 11 SHEAR DIR 185 174 167 177 175 169 188 190 206 163 166 183 158 158 182 200 131 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 149 149 149 150 149 149 149 149 150 152 159 157 153 157 158 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 -50.5 -51.0 -50.8 -51.3 -50.5 -51.0 -50.3 -50.7 -50.4 -51.0 -50.5 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 50 51 50 49 50 54 62 66 67 64 63 63 66 60 65 62 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 23 23 20 18 19 19 22 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 140 151 162 175 175 180 182 171 157 141 130 121 115 155 131 117 105 200 MB DIV 7 18 38 50 30 25 -13 6 47 94 110 129 138 116 83 110 91 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 2071 2134 2098 2041 1985 1887 1839 1818 1815 1840 1872 1909 1951 2337 2266 2249 2216 LAT (DEG N) 6.5 6.0 5.4 4.9 4.4 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 171.2 171.4 171.6 172.0 172.3 173.1 174.1 175.0 176.0 177.0 178.0 179.0 180.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 16 14 4 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 64 73 80 82 83 85 78 75 74 77 86 101 109 85 95 99 111 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 7 CX,CY: 3/ -5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 2. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -17. -25. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 2. -5. -14. -18. -22. -19. -18. -17. -18. -20. -24. -27. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 6.5 171.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/12/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.30 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.52 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 555.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.29 -1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 76.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.73 2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.69 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.8% 31.1% 27.2% 22.3% 18.5% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 31.7% 55.9% 38.9% 35.6% 13.7% 8.4% 1.0% 7.7% Bayesian: 13.2% 44.0% 23.6% 10.7% 7.1% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 23.2% 43.7% 29.9% 22.9% 13.1% 9.8% 0.4% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/12/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##