* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/11/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 61 61 60 56 48 45 41 41 41 43 43 42 42 41 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 61 61 60 56 48 45 41 41 41 43 43 42 42 41 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 59 59 57 55 51 47 43 40 38 36 36 37 38 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 10 12 14 16 19 19 18 12 7 3 3 4 5 2 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 10 6 8 7 9 8 7 7 2 5 8 6 3 4 2 SHEAR DIR 195 192 203 211 216 212 182 183 180 190 208 271 51 274 240 138 117 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 139 141 146 149 151 153 155 156 155 159 154 153 154 155 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -50.8 -51.2 -50.6 -51.1 -50.6 -51.0 -50.6 -51.5 -50.8 -51.5 -50.5 -51.1 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 52 50 48 47 40 39 42 48 58 64 71 73 57 69 74 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 23 22 23 23 23 21 22 20 21 22 22 23 23 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR 105 90 85 96 99 124 151 179 194 198 191 169 162 166 163 161 153 200 MB DIV 111 98 63 51 46 8 2 -2 22 16 44 55 71 62 138 130 156 700-850 TADV 1 3 0 -3 -6 -7 -4 -3 -2 0 1 1 0 3 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 2101 2071 2040 2027 2015 2064 2139 2085 1985 1908 1834 1787 1741 2037 1857 1868 1914 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.1 8.0 7.2 6.3 5.3 4.4 3.7 3.0 2.5 2.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 173.5 173.3 173.0 172.7 172.4 172.1 172.0 172.1 172.4 172.9 173.5 174.3 175.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 11 4 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 40 39 39 43 47 61 74 83 88 94 95 90 88 88 81 85 91 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -10. -9. -9. -8. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -5. -5. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -22. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 1. -7. -10. -14. -14. -14. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 7.9 173.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/11/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 7.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 7.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 11.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 6.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 403.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.46 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.9% 52.1% 50.3% 39.0% 30.4% 36.2% 17.7% 0.0% Logistic: 47.6% 64.3% 44.8% 44.6% 7.0% 20.7% 2.9% 10.5% Bayesian: 15.1% 39.5% 59.1% 37.7% 0.4% 18.0% 8.6% 0.0% Consensus: 30.5% 52.0% 51.4% 40.4% 12.6% 25.0% 9.7% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/11/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##