* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/11/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 61 64 67 72 73 66 64 59 57 58 58 55 52 49 45 V (KT) LAND 50 56 61 64 67 72 73 66 64 59 57 58 58 55 52 49 45 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 60 62 64 68 69 68 68 66 62 62 64 65 64 66 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 6 6 6 6 5 11 14 14 5 7 7 4 5 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 9 9 7 7 8 14 12 6 5 9 13 9 9 9 4 SHEAR DIR 116 135 171 199 201 186 157 160 129 154 116 28 29 330 46 31 64 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 28.9 29.2 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 144 144 145 149 150 152 154 155 157 157 157 151 153 153 152 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -50.8 -50.7 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 55 56 55 53 49 44 43 42 49 51 62 68 72 68 68 66 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 22 21 22 22 23 20 23 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 25 850 MB ENV VOR 109 97 86 84 90 105 142 164 192 209 205 189 178 186 183 179 170 200 MB DIV 88 94 77 56 56 49 39 18 39 35 31 39 49 30 59 86 104 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2180 2162 2144 2142 2141 2189 2119 2008 1908 1823 1751 1674 1610 1842 1754 1772 1789 LAT (DEG N) 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.1 6.4 5.6 4.6 3.7 2.9 2.2 1.4 0.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 174.0 173.8 173.5 173.3 173.1 172.9 172.8 172.8 173.0 173.5 174.1 174.9 175.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 2 3 4 5 5 5 4 5 5 4 4 2 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 60 59 59 61 66 75 80 84 93 98 99 98 97 82 90 87 87 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -7. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -17. -24. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 17. 22. 23. 16. 14. 9. 7. 8. 8. 5. 2. -1. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 7.4 174.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/11/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 14.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 14.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 15.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 10.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 13.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 12.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 349.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 -8.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.58 5.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.83 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 86% is 6.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 84% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 74% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 15.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 90% is 13.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 71% is 12.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 54.7% 85.8% 83.8% 73.8% 65.4% 89.8% 71.2% 0.0% Logistic: 87.3% 93.8% 91.5% 91.8% 56.7% 61.3% 5.8% 40.4% Bayesian: 80.0% 93.1% 95.3% 96.1% 28.6% 84.6% 49.5% 0.0% Consensus: 74.0% 90.9% 90.2% 87.2% 50.2% 78.6% 42.1% 13.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/11/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##