* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/10/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 53 54 53 54 53 53 54 56 56 56 54 52 52 49 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 53 54 53 54 53 53 54 56 56 56 54 52 52 49 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 51 52 52 52 50 49 48 48 48 48 48 46 44 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 5 5 6 5 6 10 8 13 6 3 8 9 12 10 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 3 7 9 8 7 10 15 8 8 12 11 8 7 8 6 SHEAR DIR 136 135 173 188 198 211 167 157 147 146 131 262 337 12 20 32 21 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.0 29.7 29.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 140 141 140 143 150 152 151 151 152 153 154 155 160 157 154 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -50.9 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -51.1 -51.9 -51.2 -51.5 -50.8 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 55 57 54 52 47 44 40 42 45 50 54 63 67 74 69 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 23 20 21 20 20 19 19 20 21 20 21 20 20 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR 142 116 99 86 86 103 121 155 174 188 192 184 169 169 185 195 192 200 MB DIV 39 57 63 54 34 26 18 10 19 18 26 25 36 43 71 92 125 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 3 1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 2146 2131 2116 2098 2080 2107 2207 2080 1963 1863 1796 1752 1711 1783 1730 1755 1776 LAT (DEG N) 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.5 6.5 5.2 4.1 3.1 2.4 1.9 1.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 174.0 173.9 173.7 173.5 173.2 173.1 173.3 173.8 174.3 175.0 175.6 176.1 176.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 2 3 6 6 6 5 4 4 2 10 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 50 46 46 46 47 56 76 81 80 82 85 88 90 86 126 109 94 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -23. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. 7. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 7.8 174.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/10/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 300.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.57 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.44 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.3% 45.5% 33.7% 23.9% 18.0% 39.6% 37.4% 15.5% Logistic: 39.1% 78.4% 58.5% 53.5% 18.9% 21.4% 3.4% 30.4% Bayesian: 5.2% 42.7% 24.7% 11.3% 4.7% 68.6% 72.5% 0.5% Consensus: 19.9% 55.5% 39.0% 29.6% 13.9% 43.2% 37.8% 15.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/10/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##