* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/10/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 33 32 32 34 38 38 41 45 49 51 52 51 51 49 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 33 32 32 34 38 38 41 45 49 51 52 51 51 49 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 32 31 31 31 32 32 32 32 33 34 36 38 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 15 12 13 13 10 15 15 12 11 8 3 4 9 11 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 1 4 4 0 4 12 10 7 7 9 8 5 5 8 SHEAR DIR 120 132 132 143 157 149 159 162 163 152 151 127 35 81 55 77 72 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.7 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 141 140 140 143 148 151 151 151 153 154 154 155 161 157 157 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 51 54 55 56 55 51 48 45 42 45 47 54 57 59 65 63 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 19 18 17 16 18 16 17 18 18 17 17 16 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 157 147 118 102 92 96 102 136 155 175 182 182 137 130 146 164 180 200 MB DIV 25 14 19 19 30 40 26 17 12 21 18 18 52 56 60 62 104 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 2 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2185 2174 2162 2143 2124 2112 2188 2136 2010 1897 1807 1730 1668 1749 1627 1638 1628 LAT (DEG N) 7.6 7.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 7.6 6.8 5.7 4.5 3.4 2.5 1.7 1.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 174.3 174.2 174.1 173.9 173.7 173.3 173.4 173.9 174.5 175.1 175.6 176.1 176.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 2 2 3 5 6 6 6 5 4 1 7 7 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 57 53 53 50 49 55 71 82 80 79 85 90 91 88 114 114 113 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 28. 30. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -15. -23. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -1. 3. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 16. 16. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 7.6 174.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/10/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.65 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.27 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.49 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.73 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.08 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 16.9% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 25.1% 6.2% 3.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 16.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 16.0% 0.2% Consensus: 4.0% 14.1% 7.3% 1.2% 0.5% 5.2% 5.5% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/10/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##