* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/09/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 39 37 36 35 33 33 32 32 31 32 32 32 33 32 29 V (KT) LAND 45 41 39 37 36 35 33 33 32 32 31 32 32 32 33 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 41 37 35 33 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 29 28 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 14 15 18 17 14 12 11 14 11 11 12 7 3 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 9 5 4 3 0 5 2 2 9 16 9 5 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 121 111 103 111 125 136 147 151 171 173 173 176 204 276 358 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.7 29.5 29.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 136 136 138 139 141 145 148 151 150 151 159 160 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 55 58 60 55 54 51 47 42 39 43 45 63 67 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 21 21 20 18 16 15 14 14 15 15 16 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 211 183 167 154 149 125 96 87 108 134 147 158 153 163 159 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 24 30 33 42 21 62 62 41 1 23 7 16 28 72 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2108 2118 2128 2144 2159 2198 2229 2253 2308 2259 2185 2079 1987 1703 1604 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.2 6.6 5.9 4.9 4.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 173.7 174.0 174.2 174.4 174.6 175.0 175.2 175.3 175.5 175.7 175.9 176.1 176.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 3 5 5 9 9 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 42 39 40 39 42 46 53 66 78 83 83 83 118 119 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -11. -11. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -18. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. -13. -13. -12. -13. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 8.0 173.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/09/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.54 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.16 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 256.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.38 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.66 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 19.0% 15.7% 10.5% 8.5% 11.9% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.8% 5.3% 3.5% 2.8% 4.0% 4.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/09/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##