* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/08/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 45 45 44 42 44 41 38 36 34 33 31 32 32 30 27 V (KT) LAND 45 46 45 45 44 42 44 41 38 36 34 33 31 32 32 30 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 42 39 36 34 32 32 31 31 31 31 30 28 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 24 21 19 17 16 14 10 11 10 7 9 10 12 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 5 5 5 2 0 7 6 15 24 20 20 21 SHEAR DIR 83 94 107 109 109 94 94 117 155 153 165 201 199 144 152 176 177 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 150 149 147 143 142 140 140 139 140 143 148 153 151 155 158 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.6 -51.1 -50.6 -50.4 -51.5 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 74 71 70 67 64 60 59 57 51 49 45 43 34 46 45 46 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 30 29 28 24 24 21 20 18 16 14 13 13 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 248 253 249 233 226 213 181 146 112 106 85 92 118 142 160 170 163 200 MB DIV 203 199 155 91 57 37 43 20 31 39 33 -9 -13 20 15 10 21 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 2120 2148 2118 2101 2086 2100 2121 2143 2166 2197 2213 2237 2253 2055 1956 1870 1801 LAT (DEG N) 5.6 6.1 6.6 7.1 7.5 8.0 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 171.6 171.9 172.1 172.5 172.8 173.6 174.1 174.5 174.8 175.1 175.2 175.2 175.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 9 11 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 76 75 71 66 58 47 42 39 39 41 44 51 57 86 92 104 112 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -4. -3. -2. -0. 2. 3. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -12. -16. -19. -22. -23. -22. -20. -18. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -17. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -13. -13. -15. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 5.6 171.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/08/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 141.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.90 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.66 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.4% Logistic: 1.2% 8.0% 2.3% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 10.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/08/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##