* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PALI CP012016 01/07/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 56 58 58 57 53 47 41 38 33 28 26 25 25 24 20 V (KT) LAND 45 51 56 58 58 57 53 47 41 38 33 28 26 25 25 24 20 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 54 52 49 45 41 39 38 36 35 33 32 31 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 31 36 37 33 30 24 15 10 13 18 20 17 17 16 18 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 4 7 12 3 8 6 4 3 3 4 9 19 20 16 SHEAR DIR 100 96 100 103 115 112 94 100 104 143 163 185 189 142 124 142 168 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 154 153 152 150 149 146 145 144 145 145 146 149 155 152 152 155 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.0 -50.0 -50.9 -51.4 -50.6 -51.6 -51.4 -52.0 -51.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 3 5 5 6 5 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 82 80 80 81 77 70 66 64 70 68 64 57 51 50 47 46 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 30 29 27 25 23 21 19 18 16 14 14 13 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 235 240 243 234 244 236 212 177 138 105 89 103 130 141 151 164 171 200 MB DIV 223 220 188 198 135 78 48 31 15 39 42 59 36 44 33 1 -11 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 0 1 2 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -4 -5 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1990 2044 2098 2147 2145 2138 2131 2114 2084 2049 2024 2010 2006 2063 1976 1893 1829 LAT (DEG N) 4.4 4.9 5.4 5.9 6.3 6.9 7.3 7.5 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.3 7.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 171.1 171.3 171.5 171.8 172.1 172.8 173.2 173.2 172.9 172.4 171.9 171.4 170.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 5 5 4 2 1 1 2 3 3 6 11 7 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 98 90 84 78 74 67 58 53 50 47 45 45 50 85 91 97 107 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -17. -18. -15. -12. -10. -10. -9. -7. -4. -2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -8. -13. -14. -17. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -12. -19. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 13. 13. 12. 8. 2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -19. -20. -20. -21. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 4.4 171.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP012016 PALI 01/07/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 192.8 -33.0 to 159.5 1.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 11.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 84.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.82 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 26.4% 6.4% 3.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.1% 5.0% Bayesian: 3.4% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 8.8% 2.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012016 PALI 01/07/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##