* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/22/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 28 26 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 28 26 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 25 22 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 32 35 42 43 48 53 49 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 0 2 -2 -8 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 242 239 239 241 234 239 233 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.7 26.1 25.6 25.1 24.5 24.0 23.9 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 123 118 112 104 99 97 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -53.2 -53.8 -54.2 -53.5 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 47 45 38 36 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 10 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 20 11 13 -1 -18 -27 -32 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 33 30 29 8 0 -18 -7 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 3 4 4 3 6 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1016 1011 1014 999 991 967 935 897 852 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.5 20.9 21.1 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.2 118.8 119.4 119.8 120.2 120.5 120.4 120.1 119.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 773 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 13. 11. 9. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -10. -22. -36. -47. -56. -59. -61. -62. -65. -71. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -4. -5. -11. -21. -36. -53. -64. -73. -79. -82. -86. -90. -96.-101. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.5 118.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/22/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/22/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##