* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/21/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 32 29 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 33 32 29 24 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 31 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 22 26 30 42 45 53 50 58 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 2 -1 0 1 -1 -9 -6 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 243 241 242 239 246 245 239 238 232 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.1 26.4 25.3 24.7 24.2 23.9 23.7 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 141 134 127 114 107 101 98 95 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 48 50 47 42 37 36 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 17 20 20 23 23 -10 -11 -16 8 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 22 40 38 23 15 8 -8 -4 -3 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 5 2 -5 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 891 906 929 928 928 907 886 858 827 793 756 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.6 20.4 21.0 21.4 21.7 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.4 116.1 116.8 117.5 118.2 119.1 119.5 119.6 119.5 119.3 119.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 5 4 2 2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 15 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 761 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -16. -27. -39. -50. -54. -56. -57. -59. -65. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -9. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -20. -34. -46. -61. -65. -68. -71. -75. -83. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.7 115.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/21/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.21 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/21/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##