* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/21/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 31 28 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 31 28 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 31 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 19 23 28 38 44 48 53 53 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 0 0 1 -2 -7 -4 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 252 247 243 243 241 244 241 244 238 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.7 25.4 24.6 23.9 23.4 23.3 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 140 135 130 116 107 98 93 92 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -53.5 -54.1 -54.3 -53.9 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 43 44 44 47 49 43 39 38 39 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 22 28 26 29 0 -19 -10 -2 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 17 16 25 30 19 7 -8 -20 -2 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 0 4 5 2 5 -2 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 798 821 851 868 867 868 847 827 774 714 660 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.6 20.6 21.4 22.0 22.4 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.3 116.0 116.7 117.4 118.6 119.2 119.5 119.4 119.0 118.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 12 9 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -5. -14. -25. -36. -48. -52. -53. -55. -57. -63. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -20. -33. -46. -59. -64. -67. -71. -75. -82. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.1 114.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/21/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 270.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/21/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##