* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/21/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 31 28 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 31 28 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 28 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 12 14 18 29 41 42 47 49 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 0 0 3 1 0 1 -4 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 251 258 256 246 237 233 243 244 241 242 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.6 26.4 25.3 24.6 24.0 23.6 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 142 142 139 126 114 106 99 94 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.5 -53.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 47 45 46 46 50 46 41 36 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 11 9 10 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 22 21 23 33 36 34 6 9 0 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 24 30 36 28 29 25 -3 -12 -25 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 1 0 5 5 2 5 3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 765 789 821 852 891 898 892 880 865 835 809 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.7 19.6 20.5 21.2 21.6 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.2 115.0 115.8 116.6 118.0 118.9 119.5 119.8 119.8 119.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 13 13 12 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -9. -18. -27. -37. -40. -41. -42. -44. -48. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -17. -26. -38. -50. -54. -56. -59. -62. -67. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.8 113.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/21/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.23 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 16.9% 13.5% 9.3% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 5.7% 4.6% 3.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/21/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##