* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/20/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 32 31 30 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 32 31 30 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 33 32 30 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 9 10 11 19 25 37 41 47 50 58 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 -2 -1 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 260 251 252 246 244 240 241 243 236 241 231 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.3 26.5 25.4 24.8 24.4 24.1 23.9 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 146 143 138 136 127 115 108 103 100 98 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.9 -53.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 49 49 46 45 47 53 48 42 41 42 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 8 8 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 18 23 20 20 21 24 20 -1 -4 -16 6 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 35 31 22 15 10 24 32 15 -17 -7 -16 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 0 0 2 3 5 3 5 4 1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 731 746 741 743 755 790 801 764 739 704 663 606 560 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.8 20.5 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.8 112.6 113.3 114.1 115.5 116.6 117.4 117.8 117.8 117.7 117.4 117.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 21 18 15 10 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 15. 13. 12. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -9. -17. -25. -32. -40. -40. -42. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -8. -9. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -9. -15. -24. -34. -43. -55. -57. -58. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.1 111.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/20/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 242.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 -3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.15 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.18 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.7% 18.2% 16.0% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 6.6% 5.7% 3.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/20/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##