* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/20/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 42 44 45 41 36 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 42 44 45 41 36 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 37 37 37 35 31 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 4 6 10 12 20 26 35 45 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 0 -1 1 2 1 1 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 122 173 247 244 245 249 235 250 243 245 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.5 27.8 27.1 26.6 26.2 25.2 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 153 150 148 141 133 128 123 113 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.8 -53.3 -54.0 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 53 54 51 48 49 51 56 48 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 26 24 21 24 20 18 19 22 3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 18 36 38 29 13 13 28 27 17 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 2 2 0 0 5 4 5 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 591 636 686 699 681 672 664 655 608 536 485 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.7 18.4 19.3 20.2 21.3 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.9 110.7 111.4 112.1 113.3 114.2 115.0 115.5 115.9 116.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 33 27 22 20 13 6 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -11. -19. -21. -21. -22. -23. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -3. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 6. 1. -8. -19. -20. -21. -23. -24. -28. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.7 109.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/20/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 27.5% 24.7% 18.5% 13.9% 19.5% 16.1% 13.3% Logistic: 16.1% 29.5% 26.7% 10.7% 3.4% 5.3% 0.8% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.7% 19.5% 17.2% 9.7% 5.7% 8.3% 5.6% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/20/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##