* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RICK EP212015 11/19/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 41 42 44 45 43 38 32 24 25 26 26 26 25 24 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 41 42 44 45 43 38 32 24 25 26 26 26 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 41 41 39 35 31 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 3 5 11 17 21 26 38 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 2 3 0 0 1 2 3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 126 126 144 184 231 253 256 245 249 247 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.5 28.7 28.1 27.6 27.5 27.0 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 160 160 150 143 138 137 132 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -53.2 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 59 59 56 52 50 55 63 64 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 25 18 22 24 31 29 32 25 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 32 22 14 11 9 21 22 33 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -3 0 0 0 1 4 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 536 537 535 568 619 658 623 609 584 557 504 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.2 17.9 18.5 19.3 20.3 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.6 107.3 108.0 109.0 110.0 111.7 112.7 113.5 114.1 114.7 115.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 10 7 5 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 38 33 37 37 24 18 12 10 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 23. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -1. -6. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 8. 3. -3. -11. -10. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.6 106.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212015 RICK 11/19/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.81 8.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.4% 36.4% 27.1% 19.8% 14.9% 22.8% 18.1% 15.8% Logistic: 13.6% 39.3% 30.1% 13.5% 7.5% 10.8% 6.7% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 16.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% Consensus: 9.3% 30.6% 19.8% 11.3% 7.6% 11.6% 8.4% 6.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212015 RICK 11/19/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##