* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/12/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 56 55 53 49 44 35 27 26 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 57 56 55 53 49 44 35 27 26 23 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 56 51 48 47 45 47 50 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 46 37 32 36 36 21 23 41 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 16 10 10 0 3 0 2 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 265 241 245 252 222 212 218 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.3 19.4 16.1 20.7 20.8 15.8 13.5 10.9 10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 92 79 72 83 84 74 73 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 84 73 68 75 76 70 71 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -58.3 -58.8 -59.1 -58.9 -58.6 -58.5 -57.0 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 -0.2 0.6 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 72 71 65 59 55 59 62 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 30 28 25 22 20 20 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 125 165 170 175 193 202 145 103 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 115 107 104 83 54 50 49 52 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 126 89 23 -5 -16 -63 -87 -140 -119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 721 689 698 752 832 1099 1505 1021 540 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.3 41.0 41.7 42.3 42.8 44.5 47.6 51.8 55.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.6 49.7 47.8 45.9 44.1 39.3 32.7 25.2 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 16 16 15 17 23 30 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 29 CX,CY: 25/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -30. -33. -36. -39. -41. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -18. -20. -24. -28. -32. -38. -42. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 30. 30. 28. 24. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -16. -25. -33. -33. -37. -39. -43. -49. -54. -60. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 40.3 51.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/12/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/12/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/12/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 56 55 53 49 44 35 27 26 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 58 57 55 51 46 37 29 28 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 53 49 44 35 27 26 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 44 39 30 22 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT