* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/11/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 67 69 66 60 56 51 44 35 29 25 20 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 67 69 66 60 56 51 44 35 29 25 20 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 66 67 65 61 51 47 47 49 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 39 49 49 41 39 26 24 31 42 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 16 14 10 4 3 1 0 9 15 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 268 269 270 265 241 251 225 239 239 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.4 23.4 24.0 21.1 21.1 16.8 18.6 15.8 13.1 11.4 11.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 101 103 87 85 73 78 74 72 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 94 94 79 77 69 72 70 70 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.6 -56.1 -57.0 -58.3 -58.7 -58.0 -57.5 -56.5 -54.3 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.4 -0.1 1.8 1.1 1.8 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 66 69 72 58 49 49 46 49 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 26 29 31 34 33 28 26 24 24 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 91 120 154 164 198 229 151 126 122 181 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 143 146 142 121 102 73 23 46 40 36 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 79 153 151 157 102 5 -30 -9 63 28 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 851 857 839 750 662 697 884 1181 1574 995 532 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.2 37.6 38.9 40.0 41.0 42.0 43.2 45.2 48.0 51.7 55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.5 59.1 55.6 53.1 50.7 47.3 43.0 37.8 31.7 24.8 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 35 30 26 22 17 15 19 23 27 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 39 CX,CY: 35/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -19. -24. -29. -33. -36. -39. -42. -44. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -23. -26. -30. -34. -39. -42. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 23. 20. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 9. 9. 5. 3. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -8. -12. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -19. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 1. -5. -9. -14. -21. -30. -36. -40. -45. -49. -53. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 36.2 62.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/11/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.74 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 80.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/11/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/11/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 3( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 67 67 69 66 60 56 51 44 35 29 25 20 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 65 65 67 64 58 54 49 42 33 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 63 60 54 50 45 38 29 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 54 48 44 39 32 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT