* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/10/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 60 64 72 77 74 61 52 48 43 32 26 21 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 60 64 72 77 74 61 52 48 43 32 26 21 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 62 65 70 66 53 43 43 48 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 25 31 31 40 44 42 42 41 42 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 4 5 5 17 7 3 0 2 12 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 235 242 265 268 284 279 264 261 239 232 228 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 25.7 25.0 24.8 24.0 23.8 21.6 12.9 14.3 17.5 13.9 9.9 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 115 110 110 104 102 88 68 70 76 72 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 107 103 104 98 93 79 66 67 71 69 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -55.2 -55.8 -57.1 -57.3 -57.3 -56.4 -56.1 -55.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 57 52 49 54 60 63 52 44 56 62 57 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 13 13 16 26 30 30 24 21 23 26 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 43 72 88 112 140 195 207 171 127 105 128 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 77 73 92 113 111 67 0 27 32 17 21 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 19 12 25 49 138 125 -19 -30 -49 -16 -21 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 522 513 536 714 836 846 733 565 602 864 1209 1408 957 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 31.0 32.4 33.8 35.2 37.9 40.1 42.0 43.7 45.4 47.9 51.3 54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.4 73.4 71.4 68.3 65.1 58.3 53.5 50.4 46.7 42.0 36.6 30.7 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 22 26 30 30 26 18 16 17 20 24 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 16 CX,CY: 7/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. -22. -25. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -8. -14. -20. -24. -29. -35. -41. -47. -51. -54. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 12. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 2. 10. 16. 18. 11. 7. 10. 12. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 9. 17. 22. 19. 6. -3. -7. -12. -23. -29. -34. -39. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 29.5 75.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/10/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.14 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 335.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.21 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 15.4% 9.8% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 4.2% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 6.5% 3.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/10/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/10/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 59 60 64 72 77 74 61 52 48 43 32 26 21 16 DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 56 57 61 69 74 71 58 49 45 40 29 23 18 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 56 64 69 66 53 44 40 35 24 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 57 62 59 46 37 33 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT