* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/10/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 58 60 69 77 77 75 71 67 61 56 53 50 48 46 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 58 60 69 77 77 75 71 67 61 56 53 50 48 46 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 56 58 60 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 19 26 31 35 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 5 5 15 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 230 224 242 261 277 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 26.9 26.0 25.0 24.8 23.7 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 126 118 110 109 102 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 115 109 103 103 96 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.8 -55.3 -56.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 5 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 61 56 51 48 57 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 13 14 23 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 28 50 79 87 129 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 77 94 83 88 128 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 16 27 22 26 107 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 411 564 499 543 657 827 811 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.0 29.5 30.9 32.4 33.8 36.5 39.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.1 75.0 73.8 71.3 68.9 62.2 55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 18 21 25 28 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 10 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 14 CX,CY: 0/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -6. -11. -15. -18. -22. -25. -28. -32. -34. -36. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 9. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. 18. 16. 14. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 19. 27. 27. 25. 21. 17. 11. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.0 76.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/10/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.26 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 310.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 15.6% 9.9% 6.6% 5.5% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 5.5% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 7.0% 4.1% 2.4% 1.9% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/10/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/10/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 58 60 69 77 77 75 71 67 61 56 53 50 48 46 18HR AGO 50 49 52 54 56 65 73 73 71 67 63 57 52 49 46 44 42 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 50 59 67 67 65 61 57 51 46 43 40 38 36 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 51 59 59 57 53 49 43 38 35 32 30 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT