* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KATE AL122015 11/09/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 49 51 56 66 70 72 72 72 70 68 67 67 68 68 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 49 51 56 66 70 72 72 72 70 68 67 67 68 68 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 50 52 58 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 8 10 12 14 25 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 -1 0 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 247 244 237 219 258 299 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.6 25.3 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 131 130 129 123 111 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 117 117 116 112 101 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 6 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 68 65 61 54 43 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 10 11 13 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -60 -40 -11 12 31 62 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 46 51 60 73 62 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 6 11 14 13 34 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 404 414 385 504 547 538 701 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.0 26.2 27.3 28.7 30.0 32.9 35.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.7 76.0 76.2 75.3 74.5 70.9 67.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 15 18 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 37 37 22 9 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 11. 16. 26. 30. 32. 32. 32. 30. 28. 27. 27. 28. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 25.0 75.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122015 KATE 11/09/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.71 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 16.2% 10.5% 7.0% 5.9% 8.3% 8.8% 9.0% Logistic: 3.7% 13.5% 7.0% 2.2% 0.5% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 10.1% 5.9% 3.1% 2.2% 3.4% 3.1% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122015 KATE 11/09/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122015 KATE 11/09/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 49 51 56 66 70 72 72 72 70 68 67 67 68 68 18HR AGO 40 39 41 45 47 52 62 66 68 68 68 66 64 63 63 64 64 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 42 47 57 61 63 63 63 61 59 58 58 59 59 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 37 47 51 53 53 53 51 49 48 48 49 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT