* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 32 28 21 18 18 13 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 17 21 17 11 11 -1 -2 -6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 291 310 311 294 295 295 309 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.4 24.3 24.2 24.1 24.6 24.8 25.4 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 107 104 102 100 108 111 118 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.2 -50.0 -49.8 -49.7 -50.3 -50.8 -51.5 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 38 34 28 23 19 21 23 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 13 11 8 7 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 40 33 25 -7 -48 -72 -73 -69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 0 -2 -5 -18 -26 -26 -20 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -4 -5 -7 -8 -10 -10 -10 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1820 1712 1605 1561 1518 1628 1856 1727 1449 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.6 27.0 27.1 27.1 26.3 25.4 24.5 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 136.6 135.6 134.6 134.1 133.6 134.3 136.4 138.9 141.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 10 7 4 2 7 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -12. -15. -16. -17. -18. -20. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -10. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -23. -31. -37. -42. -41. -42. -45. -48. -50. -54. -56. -59. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.2 136.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/27/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##