* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/26/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 43 37 31 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 43 37 31 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 43 37 32 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 18 22 24 23 19 17 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 12 11 16 24 9 -1 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 270 255 285 304 332 293 299 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.1 24.9 24.5 24.1 23.7 23.7 24.4 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 115 113 109 104 98 96 105 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -50.2 -49.9 -50.0 -50.1 -50.8 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 3 3 2 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 39 38 38 38 27 22 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 25 23 20 20 18 13 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 34 29 19 27 3 -35 -52 -52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 50 5 -13 -19 -21 -33 -30 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 5 1 -2 -10 -6 -11 1 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1440 1582 1725 1865 1737 1586 1545 1636 1721 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.1 25.8 26.4 27.0 27.7 27.3 26.3 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.8 140.6 139.4 138.2 136.9 134.9 134.1 134.4 134.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 13 13 11 6 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 801 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -17. -18. -19. -21. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -8. -14. -19. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -19. -24. -32. -39. -45. -49. -51. -53. -56. -60. -66. -70. -75. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 24.3 141.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/26/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.29 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 390.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/26/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##