* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/26/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 52 47 42 36 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 52 47 42 36 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 52 46 40 35 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 28 19 26 26 25 17 20 18 18 11 12 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 10 10 6 19 18 2 0 0 -4 -1 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 263 249 249 276 321 305 302 295 315 277 253 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.5 25.0 24.7 24.2 23.7 23.3 23.3 23.5 23.8 24.5 24.8 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 120 114 111 106 99 93 92 93 98 108 112 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.0 -50.3 -49.9 -49.6 -50.2 -50.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 46 42 39 40 34 24 21 16 10 10 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 25 21 20 16 11 8 6 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 21 31 22 13 18 -9 -44 -68 -59 -51 -40 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 53 52 11 -4 -13 -24 -31 -32 -37 -27 -15 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 18 3 2 -3 -1 -11 -7 -9 -20 -14 -11 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1361 1502 1643 1795 1792 1539 1448 1410 1420 1477 1641 1900 1710 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.6 25.4 26.2 26.9 27.9 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.1 25.0 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 142.4 141.3 140.1 138.8 137.5 135.1 133.6 132.9 132.7 133.0 134.3 136.6 138.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 13 10 4 3 2 5 9 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 764 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -19. -22. -25. -27. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -16. -17. -17. -17. -19. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -0. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -2. -3. -8. -16. -21. -25. -25. -26. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -13. -18. -24. -34. -43. -52. -58. -65. -66. -69. -71. -76. -81. -87. -91. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 23.7 142.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/26/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/26/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##