* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/25/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 73 66 59 55 47 36 32 31 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 73 66 59 55 47 36 32 31 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 75 68 62 56 45 36 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 22 21 27 26 16 22 14 18 17 17 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 10 10 13 8 12 26 5 0 -2 -4 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 286 271 254 254 246 304 322 273 272 284 279 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.1 24.2 24.0 23.8 24.2 24.6 25.2 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 123 122 122 115 105 101 97 103 109 117 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -51.2 -50.1 -49.7 -50.1 -50.8 -51.4 -52.1 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 51 53 50 46 41 33 23 17 15 12 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 25 24 26 24 22 22 22 21 15 14 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 28 16 28 26 49 42 12 -72 -72 -65 -54 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -19 17 64 65 55 13 -39 -18 -11 -27 -36 -18 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 22 25 22 24 13 -11 -13 -18 -6 -3 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1161 1230 1301 1400 1500 1764 1799 1621 1539 1577 1757 1775 1445 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.0 22.7 23.4 24.1 25.6 26.8 27.4 27.4 26.7 25.8 24.8 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.8 143.3 142.7 141.9 141.1 138.9 136.8 135.1 134.1 134.0 135.5 138.5 141.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 11 11 10 6 3 5 11 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -17. -23. -26. -30. -32. -34. -36. -39. -41. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -8. -5. -3. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. -0. -1. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -18. -19. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -21. -25. -33. -44. -48. -49. -53. -62. -65. -68. -72. -76. -80. -83. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 21.3 143.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/25/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 516.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.33 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/25/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##