* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/25/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 73 65 58 52 45 38 32 32 32 27 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 73 65 58 52 45 38 32 32 32 27 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 72 64 57 51 41 33 26 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 21 20 21 28 19 14 14 11 14 15 11 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 13 14 11 12 9 21 13 -1 -2 -6 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 280 281 258 253 268 283 323 254 268 263 268 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.3 24.6 24.5 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 125 123 122 120 115 106 104 113 114 116 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.9 -50.7 -50.1 -50.4 -51.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.6 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 52 55 52 45 38 27 20 20 16 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 27 25 24 25 22 21 20 21 18 15 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 44 26 11 16 34 41 28 -58 -53 -74 -72 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -12 9 61 60 22 -27 -23 -2 -28 -27 -18 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 18 20 22 22 23 12 -12 -12 -9 -2 2 2 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1124 1179 1237 1306 1378 1556 1731 1870 1887 1762 1600 1416 1220 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.5 22.1 22.7 23.3 24.3 25.2 25.9 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.3 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.1 143.7 143.2 142.7 142.1 140.6 139.1 137.9 137.8 139.0 140.6 142.5 144.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 3 2 6 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -20. -24. -26. -29. -31. -33. -36. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -8. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -5. -3. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -6. -9. -11. -10. -15. -17. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -22. -28. -35. -42. -48. -48. -48. -53. -57. -64. -67. -71. -75. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 20.8 144.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/25/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 497.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/25/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##