* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/23/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 175 190 186 165 142 104 79 56 44 41 34 26 19 18 17 17 20 V (KT) LAND 175 190 186 144 100 50 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 175 175 160 126 89 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 12 19 27 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 3 0 1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 118 180 179 203 240 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 29.8 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 171 172 164 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.4 -50.2 -50.3 -50.7 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 63 60 57 55 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 23 20 10 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 73 74 91 110 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 111 98 77 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -9 -9 -8 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 292 204 109 -19 -73 -251 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.8 21.0 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.4 105.5 105.5 105.0 104.5 103.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 57 62 66 52 32 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -12. -17. -32. -47. -62. -74. -85. -93. -97. -95. -94. -94. -97.-101. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -3. -8. -15. -26. -23. -16. -9. -4. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -4. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 19. 24. 21. 15. 5. -7. -20. -26. -23. -25. -30. -36. -34. -34. -34. -28. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -10. -14. -14. -18. -23. -26. -27. -26. -25. -23. -20. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 15. 11. -10. -33. -71. -96.-119.-131.-134.-141.-149.-156.-157.-158.-158.-155. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 175. LAT, LON: 16.5 105.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/23/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -5.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 60.0 -22.0 to 44.0 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 175.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 837.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 90.5% 15.8% 34.4% 41.4% 39.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 88.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 59.6% 5.3% 11.5% 13.8% 13.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/23/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##