* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/23/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 154 158 153 139 107 81 66 56 53 48 43 38 35 33 32 32 V (KT) LAND 140 154 158 153 139 67 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 140 149 146 135 121 60 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 2 4 9 19 31 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 0 1 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 188 173 183 186 235 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.5 30.7 28.7 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 166 167 171 172 153 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.1 -50.0 -50.7 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 1.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 68 63 59 55 57 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 26 22 17 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 64 76 76 88 98 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 131 115 109 123 84 93 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -2 -3 -8 10 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 324 280 236 126 37 -155 -403 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.6 17.3 18.4 19.4 22.0 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.9 105.3 105.7 105.6 105.4 103.9 102.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 11 12 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 57 55 62 68 64 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -12. -25. -36. -44. -52. -57. -59. -58. -57. -57. -59. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -2. -5. -13. -17. -13. -9. -6. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. -9. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 14. 19. 18. 14. 7. -1. -9. -14. -12. -13. -16. -20. -19. -19. -18. -15. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. -1. -5. -13. -17. -22. -25. -25. -25. -24. -21. -19. -18. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 14. 18. 13. -1. -33. -59. -74. -84. -87. -92. -97.-102.-105.-107.-108.-108. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 15.8 104.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/23/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.01 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 50.0 -22.0 to 44.0 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 567.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.58 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 87% is 13.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 87.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 89.4% 51.5% 64.1% 63.9% 63.7% 8.3% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 79.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 85.2% 17.4% 21.4% 21.3% 21.2% 2.8% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/23/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##