* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/22/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 128 135 133 130 110 84 74 67 64 61 58 56 53 50 48 46 V (KT) LAND 115 128 135 133 130 80 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 115 127 131 129 122 75 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 0 8 7 9 10 27 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -2 0 1 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 184 202 190 206 184 193 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.5 29.8 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 167 165 167 171 164 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.3 -50.3 -50.4 -49.9 -50.0 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 10 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 73 70 66 64 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 29 31 28 28 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 60 59 69 64 107 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 117 132 85 80 104 118 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 2 -3 -12 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 351 318 293 221 138 -66 -233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.8 16.4 17.3 18.2 20.9 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.1 104.7 105.3 105.4 105.5 104.6 103.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 9 12 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 65 58 55 60 68 32 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -11. -18. -24. -29. -32. -33. -32. -31. -30. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -10. -7. -5. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 11. 14. 14. 12. 7. 2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 1. 1. -5. -16. -21. -24. -24. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 13. 20. 18. 15. -5. -31. -41. -48. -51. -54. -57. -59. -62. -65. -67. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 15.1 104.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/22/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.21 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.94 20.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.69 11.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 11.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 10.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 316.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 -7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.58 4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 86% is 13.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 5.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 13.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 86.0% 63.4% 62.8% 61.8% 55.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 89.3% 81.7% 78.7% 75.0% 78.7% 31.5% 2.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 80.5% 43.1% 68.7% 76.9% 53.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 85.3% 62.7% 70.1% 71.2% 62.5% 10.7% 0.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/22/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##