* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202015 10/21/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 52 60 75 85 87 79 64 57 55 55 55 54 54 54 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 52 60 75 85 87 68 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 44 49 61 76 87 72 43 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 2 2 2 4 1 8 13 19 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 0 -7 -1 -3 -2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 322 6 6 18 281 195 210 190 211 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.2 29.5 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 165 167 168 168 169 170 167 160 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -51.4 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 7 8 7 10 9 12 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 82 83 84 79 71 63 57 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 20 21 21 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 48 51 51 53 47 45 55 73 86 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 60 66 83 77 76 103 126 125 94 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -6 -2 0 0 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 306 293 302 300 299 284 219 122 -15 -135 -113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.1 13.0 13.2 13.3 14.1 15.4 16.9 18.6 20.6 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.8 96.5 97.3 98.2 100.1 101.6 102.7 103.5 104.0 104.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 45 53 60 57 54 48 36 31 26 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 23. 27. 29. 32. 35. 38. 41. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 7. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 17. 25. 40. 50. 52. 44. 29. 22. 20. 20. 20. 19. 19. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.2 95.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202015 TWENTY 10/21/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.85 13.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.90 10.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -8.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.92 -8.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.48 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 59% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 66% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 66% is 14.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 52.8% 42.9% 28.4% 21.4% 58.5% 66.4% 66.1% Logistic: 10.2% 59.3% 37.6% 23.3% 9.6% 48.7% 69.4% 52.9% Bayesian: 3.6% 36.7% 24.5% 6.5% 2.3% 27.1% 66.2% 75.0% Consensus: 9.5% 49.6% 35.0% 19.4% 11.1% 44.8% 67.3% 64.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 TWENTY 10/21/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##