* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202015 10/20/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 37 43 59 68 76 82 74 54 55 57 58 59 60 61 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 37 43 59 68 76 82 59 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 30 32 40 51 63 72 54 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 1 3 3 3 2 6 10 12 22 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -2 -4 -5 -1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 324 50 48 38 78 255 201 190 190 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.6 30.5 29.6 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 164 165 167 167 167 171 170 161 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 7 7 8 10 11 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 80 82 83 83 84 81 77 67 61 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 13 17 17 19 21 16 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 42 31 37 41 51 42 40 48 86 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 48 44 54 71 76 96 95 152 108 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -6 -5 0 2 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 274 299 301 307 323 323 287 241 86 -69 -103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.2 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.5 14.6 15.8 17.5 19.5 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.6 95.3 96.0 96.8 97.7 99.6 101.3 102.7 103.5 103.9 104.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 8 9 10 9 9 9 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 41 47 56 58 55 52 50 35 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 0. 5. 11. 18. 25. 29. 32. 35. 39. 43. 46. 49. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 15. 9. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 13. 29. 38. 46. 52. 44. 24. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 94.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202015 TWENTY 10/20/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.89 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.93 7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -4.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.91 -5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.45 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 30.1% 25.0% 18.6% 0.0% 32.7% 44.1% 0.0% Logistic: 6.1% 54.5% 29.3% 15.7% 7.5% 33.2% 54.5% 51.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 2.7% 24.6% 20.4% Consensus: 5.8% 29.1% 18.5% 11.5% 2.6% 22.9% 41.1% 23.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 TWENTY 10/20/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##