* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/20/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 133 135 136 134 128 125 121 118 110 103 94 86 80 73 68 56 V (KT) LAND 130 133 135 136 134 128 125 121 118 110 103 94 86 80 73 68 56 V (KT) LGEM 130 130 128 125 124 120 117 113 108 98 87 77 67 60 58 55 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 2 2 2 5 7 4 8 15 19 24 25 26 38 63 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 -3 -4 -5 -3 0 3 4 9 6 4 10 7 -11 0 SHEAR DIR 286 317 23 62 121 135 121 133 170 221 241 261 257 259 253 228 206 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.0 25.9 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 153 152 151 148 145 147 144 139 137 131 128 127 122 121 120 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 79 75 76 75 75 73 64 55 53 53 54 56 57 60 57 48 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 29 30 30 32 36 37 38 37 36 35 34 34 33 37 32 850 MB ENV VOR 62 58 60 60 76 87 110 122 112 97 86 84 65 54 115 205 120 200 MB DIV 127 103 81 111 96 85 105 90 76 96 104 32 27 61 71 31 5 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -1 0 2 2 3 4 8 11 15 15 29 38 15 12 LAND (KM) 1889 1798 1707 1614 1522 1349 1190 1046 932 855 840 870 943 1054 1188 1329 1471 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.6 13.7 14.9 16.2 17.7 19.0 20.3 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.0 140.8 141.6 142.3 143.1 144.4 145.4 146.2 146.7 146.9 146.8 146.5 146.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 25 21 20 26 24 31 30 28 21 9 4 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -14. -25. -35. -44. -51. -57. -61. -62. -64. -66. -70. -75. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -2. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 9. 12. 15. 14. 13. 10. 8. 7. 5. 9. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 4. -1. -5. -9. -12. -20. -27. -36. -44. -50. -57. -62. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 10.3 140.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/20/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.94 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 21.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.1% 14.6% 5.5% 3.2% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 28.3% 13.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.9% 16.6% 2.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/20/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##