* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/19/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 100 107 112 117 126 125 123 117 112 105 99 89 85 78 73 66 V (KT) LAND 95 100 107 112 117 126 125 123 117 112 105 99 89 85 78 73 66 V (KT) LGEM 95 100 103 105 108 115 122 124 121 115 108 97 87 81 78 75 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 3 4 1 3 5 7 5 5 16 15 20 21 27 33 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 1 8 4 3 0 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 310 300 300 283 57 99 148 130 164 216 195 235 243 249 249 251 264 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.5 28.4 27.8 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 157 157 158 157 153 148 148 147 140 136 135 133 132 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -51.3 -51.8 -51.0 -51.4 -50.5 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -51.6 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 75 76 78 76 75 73 70 64 57 55 53 54 50 50 44 38 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 28 29 29 33 33 36 35 37 37 37 34 36 35 36 37 850 MB ENV VOR 51 56 57 61 61 69 95 99 113 119 109 91 87 94 94 108 9 200 MB DIV 106 128 108 96 90 94 79 108 103 99 68 95 58 41 23 8 -50 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -3 -2 2 2 3 4 6 5 8 8 6 2 -5 -10 LAND (KM) 2165 2067 1968 1876 1785 1605 1426 1266 1126 1014 935 903 880 868 860 871 888 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.5 10.8 11.1 11.8 12.8 13.8 14.8 15.9 17.1 18.3 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.2 138.1 139.0 139.8 140.6 142.1 143.4 144.5 145.4 146.0 146.3 146.3 146.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 4 2 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 25 29 30 24 22 22 30 34 25 21 17 13 10 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -10. -14. -18. -21. -22. -23. -24. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 14. 15. 17. 17. 15. 11. 12. 10. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 7. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 17. 22. 31. 30. 28. 22. 17. 10. 4. -6. -10. -17. -22. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 10.0 137.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/19/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.30 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.72 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.0% 41.9% 27.7% 20.4% 15.3% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 38.1% 70.2% 46.0% 36.1% 21.3% 11.6% 2.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 51.8% 81.7% 85.8% 78.5% 31.0% 33.3% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 36.6% 64.6% 53.2% 45.0% 22.5% 21.3% 0.8% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/19/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##