* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/18/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 80 87 94 105 105 106 104 100 97 91 86 82 80 78 75 V (KT) LAND 70 75 80 87 94 105 105 106 104 100 97 91 86 82 80 78 75 V (KT) LGEM 70 74 77 80 84 95 107 116 118 116 112 107 98 91 88 86 82 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 8 4 4 2 2 8 6 10 10 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 0 -3 -6 -6 -4 -3 -1 0 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 339 335 336 342 346 318 215 171 164 162 199 205 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.3 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 161 162 160 157 156 154 152 149 143 139 140 140 134 130 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 73 73 75 77 72 69 66 62 56 51 48 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 26 27 28 27 31 33 34 36 35 35 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 20 33 42 63 66 69 93 101 123 125 125 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 127 136 106 102 107 71 75 68 77 61 54 71 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -6 -4 -4 -1 1 2 4 4 5 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2502 2405 2308 2205 2103 1913 1726 1539 1387 1270 1173 1126 1113 1132 1160 1185 1224 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.6 11.3 12.1 13.1 14.0 15.0 16.1 17.2 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.9 134.8 135.7 136.6 137.5 139.1 140.6 142.0 143.1 143.8 144.3 144.4 144.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 8 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 26 24 20 23 24 21 21 21 23 17 14 15 14 8 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 10. 14. 16. 17. 15. 14. 12. 11. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 17. 24. 35. 35. 36. 34. 30. 27. 21. 16. 12. 10. 8. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 9.6 133.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/18/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 9.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 7.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 9.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.77 10.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 10.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 7.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -8.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 5.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.4% 63.9% 51.9% 40.6% 30.7% 40.1% 32.1% 18.3% Logistic: 18.5% 61.6% 40.8% 29.8% 12.7% 24.9% 12.2% 5.3% Bayesian: 9.8% 43.0% 51.1% 29.0% 1.7% 43.8% 29.6% 2.2% Consensus: 19.6% 56.2% 47.9% 33.1% 15.0% 36.3% 24.6% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/18/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##