* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/18/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 77 84 93 104 105 100 98 95 93 86 85 77 73 72 71 V (KT) LAND 65 71 77 84 93 104 105 100 98 95 93 86 85 77 73 72 71 V (KT) LGEM 65 70 75 80 84 95 105 112 114 111 107 102 97 90 85 83 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 11 9 6 4 4 2 7 7 8 7 14 15 21 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 0 -1 -5 -4 0 -2 -2 1 7 5 6 -4 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 331 333 324 332 350 349 269 223 177 155 163 186 206 232 247 273 265 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 160 160 160 162 160 156 156 153 151 147 143 143 141 136 131 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -51.8 -51.2 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 67 69 72 73 76 75 70 66 63 58 54 49 44 43 41 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 24 27 29 28 28 31 32 34 31 33 30 28 28 30 850 MB ENV VOR 12 14 17 31 38 57 51 75 84 107 113 115 119 106 92 76 53 200 MB DIV 113 139 135 91 102 93 67 63 69 76 61 53 30 35 -12 11 16 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -5 -8 -5 -3 0 5 5 4 5 4 4 6 4 3 1 LAND (KM) 2639 2541 2443 2339 2234 2039 1828 1636 1469 1342 1253 1199 1181 1197 1213 1246 1274 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.1 10.3 10.9 11.8 12.7 13.7 14.5 15.6 16.8 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.5 134.4 135.4 136.3 138.0 139.7 141.2 142.4 143.3 143.7 143.8 143.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 23 26 25 19 25 21 20 20 21 19 16 18 15 9 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 13. 15. 16. 12. 13. 8. 6. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 13. 20. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 28. 39. 40. 35. 33. 30. 28. 21. 20. 12. 8. 7. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 9.4 132.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/18/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 11.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 8.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.77 11.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 12.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 8.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -8.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 5.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 45% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 41.0% 68.2% 58.0% 51.7% 38.1% 45.5% 34.2% 19.5% Logistic: 35.4% 73.2% 54.4% 44.2% 21.4% 38.5% 21.0% 14.8% Bayesian: 25.0% 71.7% 79.3% 58.4% 9.1% 61.1% 40.9% 2.5% Consensus: 33.8% 71.0% 63.9% 51.4% 22.9% 48.4% 32.0% 12.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/18/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##