* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/18/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 78 85 93 104 107 105 99 95 94 86 78 73 71 67 64 V (KT) LAND 65 71 78 85 93 104 107 105 99 95 94 86 78 73 71 67 64 V (KT) LGEM 65 72 78 83 88 100 110 115 115 110 104 95 85 79 76 71 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 10 5 6 6 2 5 7 11 13 17 21 29 36 29 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 1 -1 -3 -6 -7 -3 -1 2 3 5 1 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 319 326 353 3 7 333 276 227 174 195 203 212 215 233 240 240 244 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 160 159 159 162 158 156 154 151 149 147 143 139 133 130 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -51.5 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.2 1.2 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 69 70 72 73 74 73 68 67 65 60 55 51 52 49 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 25 26 28 30 31 33 32 34 37 36 33 32 34 33 31 850 MB ENV VOR 12 13 14 21 20 46 47 50 78 96 112 119 120 118 104 86 62 200 MB DIV 111 134 157 153 99 83 67 68 59 72 54 50 54 75 53 8 -2 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -5 -7 -5 -1 2 5 6 6 9 7 8 11 7 6 LAND (KM) 2662 2668 2575 2474 2374 2183 1981 1775 1610 1493 1402 1337 1348 1412 1507 1621 1734 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.5 9.7 10.0 10.2 10.9 11.8 13.0 14.0 15.1 16.2 17.4 18.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.4 132.3 133.1 134.0 134.9 136.5 138.1 139.6 140.8 141.5 142.0 142.3 142.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 23 22 25 20 18 21 22 23 22 24 27 20 12 8 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 65.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. -0. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 12. 13. 14. 19. 16. 11. 9. 10. 8. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 18. 10. 3. -2. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 28. 39. 42. 40. 34. 30. 29. 21. 13. 8. 6. 2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 9.3 131.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/18/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.56 12.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 12.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.65 11.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 130.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.85 14.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 13.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 7.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -10.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 5.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 11.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 56% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 48.5% 69.6% 68.9% 65.0% 49.5% 56.2% 40.1% 22.3% Logistic: 32.8% 72.4% 58.1% 48.2% 21.6% 44.2% 41.3% 28.7% Bayesian: 33.6% 61.4% 74.6% 51.3% 5.2% 50.9% 39.2% 6.1% Consensus: 38.3% 67.8% 67.2% 54.9% 25.4% 50.5% 40.2% 19.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/18/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##