* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLAF EP192015 10/17/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 63 70 77 87 97 98 97 99 96 92 88 81 79 73 66 V (KT) LAND 50 56 63 70 77 87 97 98 97 99 96 92 88 81 79 73 66 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 63 69 74 84 94 101 106 104 98 95 92 87 80 72 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 9 11 11 7 3 5 7 7 9 10 14 23 35 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 2 0 1 -2 -3 -6 -1 -2 -1 5 6 4 2 9 SHEAR DIR 348 330 332 350 356 354 358 277 223 204 218 187 202 220 236 234 237 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.6 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 157 155 154 155 158 157 158 157 155 154 152 149 142 139 133 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.1 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -51.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 62 64 67 70 70 71 73 74 71 67 65 61 53 51 48 45 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 22 23 25 30 29 31 35 35 35 35 32 34 32 31 850 MB ENV VOR 15 15 10 12 17 21 34 42 43 62 74 93 103 118 124 124 116 200 MB DIV 41 54 83 96 104 152 131 114 66 98 83 97 59 44 37 55 58 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -7 -6 -1 5 8 6 5 6 8 12 11 14 LAND (KM) 2465 2526 2590 2643 2648 2466 2274 2093 1912 1737 1594 1491 1428 1422 1448 1495 1563 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.3 11.0 11.7 12.6 13.6 14.6 15.7 16.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.0 129.9 130.7 131.5 132.3 133.9 135.5 137.0 138.4 139.7 140.7 141.3 141.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 25 23 21 21 27 16 19 23 26 26 27 33 28 14 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 14. 19. 24. 24. 22. 20. 15. 15. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 27. 37. 47. 48. 47. 49. 46. 42. 38. 31. 29. 23. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 9.4 129.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 OLAF 10/17/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 10.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 6.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 8.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.5% 52.9% 44.2% 33.8% 19.9% 51.4% 51.9% 45.7% Logistic: 21.6% 63.3% 41.3% 30.5% 13.2% 39.4% 59.5% 60.6% Bayesian: 7.0% 59.9% 49.7% 22.9% 5.3% 31.2% 35.6% 30.3% Consensus: 16.7% 58.7% 45.1% 29.1% 12.8% 40.7% 49.0% 45.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 OLAF 10/17/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##