* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192015 10/16/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 45 50 61 71 82 88 92 95 98 96 94 89 86 80 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 45 50 61 71 82 88 92 95 98 96 94 89 86 80 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 44 52 61 69 77 84 91 95 94 91 87 82 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 6 8 9 12 13 6 6 3 4 4 5 8 8 11 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 2 -1 0 2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 6 10 11 SHEAR DIR 54 20 2 340 321 322 335 347 336 327 209 236 211 191 206 216 226 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 158 158 159 160 157 155 152 152 152 150 151 149 146 146 146 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 66 67 69 69 72 72 74 74 70 65 61 60 57 54 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 15 18 21 25 26 29 31 35 35 36 35 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 7 11 15 19 23 22 17 32 47 43 50 71 80 100 114 130 150 200 MB DIV 53 66 85 67 62 63 112 135 141 87 87 118 119 76 52 30 25 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -5 -3 -2 -2 -6 -7 -5 1 8 10 7 6 9 8 12 LAND (KM) 2201 2278 2358 2426 2495 2615 2604 2432 2250 2064 1879 1706 1590 1531 1484 1454 1440 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 10.1 10.6 11.3 12.3 13.3 14.3 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 125.6 126.7 127.8 128.7 129.6 131.2 132.6 134.1 135.6 137.0 138.4 139.7 140.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 5 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 37 35 27 25 26 27 24 21 17 14 16 27 29 27 27 33 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 27. 30. 32. 35. 37. 39. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 15. 18. 22. 25. 28. 25. 24. 21. 19. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 20. 31. 41. 52. 58. 62. 65. 68. 66. 64. 59. 56. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.6 125.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 NINETEEN 10/16/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.84 9.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -5.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.27 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 60% is 12.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 46.1% 30.4% 20.4% 0.0% 30.3% 36.6% 59.5% Logistic: 33.8% 80.4% 65.2% 54.1% 21.8% 70.8% 76.9% 84.8% Bayesian: 1.6% 41.4% 33.1% 10.1% 0.6% 36.4% 34.6% 46.5% Consensus: 16.6% 56.0% 42.9% 28.2% 7.5% 45.8% 49.4% 63.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 NINETEEN 10/16/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##