* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192015 10/16/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 40 46 55 68 81 94 99 102 105 102 96 89 85 80 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 40 46 55 68 81 94 99 102 105 102 96 89 85 80 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 47 57 69 79 86 93 98 95 89 81 74 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 5 5 10 11 8 5 4 4 7 11 15 14 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -3 -1 0 -1 -3 -3 0 -2 -4 -2 -2 -3 -1 4 12 SHEAR DIR 52 62 51 31 45 2 1 338 349 344 251 187 185 214 199 221 229 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 28.7 28.2 27.4 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 161 158 157 155 153 153 152 152 154 156 151 145 136 136 138 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -52.3 -51.7 -52.3 -51.3 -52.1 -51.3 -51.7 -50.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 66 67 70 71 70 70 71 67 62 60 55 51 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 15 16 20 24 29 31 34 37 37 36 34 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 6 9 10 12 12 25 32 37 46 54 57 64 79 103 115 117 114 200 MB DIV 62 70 70 75 100 91 109 111 150 131 129 99 113 63 69 58 54 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -5 -4 3 8 8 6 9 15 18 LAND (KM) 1869 1963 2054 2122 2194 2318 2409 2491 2548 2437 2250 2053 1887 1752 1647 1583 1526 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.3 12.2 13.3 14.5 15.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.7 123.9 125.0 126.0 127.7 129.2 130.6 131.9 133.3 134.7 136.2 137.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 41 38 32 32 33 27 21 18 18 19 19 27 28 29 24 20 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 35. 37. 38. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 7. 14. 23. 25. 28. 31. 28. 24. 20. 19. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 16. 25. 38. 51. 64. 69. 72. 75. 72. 66. 59. 55. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.2 121.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 NINETEEN 10/16/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.85 8.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 6.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 104.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.79 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 56% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 28.7% 25.3% 19.1% 0.0% 26.1% 30.6% 56.2% Logistic: 10.0% 53.1% 38.8% 22.9% 17.3% 34.9% 50.3% 61.9% Bayesian: 0.7% 13.3% 6.1% 1.6% 0.1% 5.2% 13.4% 31.5% Consensus: 7.4% 31.7% 23.4% 14.5% 5.8% 22.1% 31.4% 49.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 NINETEEN 10/16/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##