* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192015 10/15/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 40 45 56 68 78 90 96 98 100 97 94 88 81 76 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 40 45 56 68 78 90 96 98 100 97 94 88 81 76 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 47 57 67 75 80 83 87 88 85 80 72 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 7 5 6 10 11 2 6 7 3 8 13 16 18 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 1 3 0 2 3 0 -6 -5 -1 4 7 SHEAR DIR 33 58 78 60 29 8 353 302 350 349 265 220 188 191 209 207 221 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.6 28.1 27.3 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 162 163 159 157 155 153 153 149 153 155 155 150 144 136 134 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -52.1 -51.3 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -50.7 -51.4 -50.8 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 64 67 67 69 68 70 70 71 71 70 64 56 54 49 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 16 16 19 21 23 28 31 33 36 37 38 38 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR -2 8 14 18 17 19 27 34 38 54 64 73 68 100 111 110 104 200 MB DIV 35 43 68 74 68 93 83 131 144 149 115 101 77 101 65 79 44 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 -1 -3 -5 -6 -4 -3 -4 -1 5 7 6 9 13 19 LAND (KM) 1755 1843 1935 2023 2101 2230 2355 2441 2527 2525 2362 2207 2050 1907 1797 1718 1652 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.0 9.9 10.0 10.1 10.5 11.0 11.8 12.8 13.9 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.8 121.0 122.2 123.4 124.5 126.5 128.3 129.8 131.3 132.6 133.8 134.9 136.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 40 41 39 34 33 32 24 19 18 18 20 24 33 33 29 19 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 35. 37. 39. 40. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 5. 9. 13. 21. 26. 28. 31. 29. 27. 24. 19. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 26. 38. 48. 60. 66. 68. 70. 67. 64. 58. 51. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.2 119.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 NINETEEN 10/15/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.86 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.34 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 54% is 11.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 22.3% 22.2% 16.9% 0.0% 19.5% 19.7% 53.5% Logistic: 3.3% 29.7% 16.4% 8.1% 6.2% 16.5% 29.9% 43.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.8% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6% 3.2% 14.2% Consensus: 4.3% 18.9% 13.3% 8.4% 2.1% 12.2% 17.6% 36.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 NINETEEN 10/15/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##