* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192015 10/15/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 44 51 65 77 88 98 102 108 107 109 102 94 90 84 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 44 51 65 77 88 98 102 108 107 109 102 94 90 84 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 40 45 57 72 85 97 102 103 105 106 102 94 84 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 7 5 6 7 10 3 5 4 3 7 10 18 18 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -4 -5 -3 0 -1 0 -1 0 -6 -4 0 0 4 6 SHEAR DIR 17 45 67 80 69 20 352 352 310 319 350 200 189 185 201 225 224 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.2 28.6 28.3 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 162 162 157 155 154 153 149 152 154 156 150 147 137 137 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 65 65 65 68 68 68 68 70 69 70 71 64 56 48 44 43 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 14 15 16 18 22 26 29 33 33 37 35 34 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -2 6 12 17 23 31 37 50 55 82 95 90 115 135 119 122 200 MB DIV 68 38 48 70 86 66 76 86 138 146 152 138 88 79 61 16 18 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 1 0 -2 -6 -4 -3 -3 -4 1 6 9 9 13 17 LAND (KM) 1667 1755 1850 1942 2035 2172 2294 2401 2476 2530 2439 2273 2107 1930 1794 1701 1610 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.4 10.9 11.6 12.4 13.5 14.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.8 121.1 122.3 123.6 125.8 127.6 129.2 130.6 132.0 133.2 134.4 135.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 12 10 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 47 40 40 40 34 31 26 21 18 18 19 20 31 30 30 20 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 27. 30. 32. 35. 37. 39. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 14. 21. 25. 30. 29. 31. 26. 22. 20. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 21. 35. 47. 58. 68. 72. 78. 77. 79. 72. 64. 60. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.3 118.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 NINETEEN 10/15/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.86 8.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.75 5.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 58% is 12.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.3% 26.7% 25.4% 19.5% 0.0% 28.0% 36.9% 58.3% Logistic: 14.2% 56.6% 40.2% 25.0% 16.6% 43.3% 64.8% 72.3% Bayesian: 2.4% 45.5% 24.6% 6.4% 0.6% 21.0% 36.4% 27.3% Consensus: 9.6% 42.9% 30.1% 17.0% 5.7% 30.8% 46.1% 52.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 NINETEEN 10/15/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##