* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/15/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 21 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 21 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 22 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 35 32 29 29 31 34 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 0 -1 1 1 0 -2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 249 248 244 240 247 245 240 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 141 141 142 142 144 146 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 41 42 41 38 41 45 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 5 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -32 -45 -45 -37 -36 -35 -37 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -20 0 20 17 0 22 12 21 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 2 2 0 1 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 515 476 437 403 368 299 246 291 389 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.0 16.8 16.4 16.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.7 151.9 152.1 152.3 152.6 153.6 155.0 156.4 157.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 27 28 29 31 36 33 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. 35. 36. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -6. -14. -22. -28. -33. -35. -35. -35. -35. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -13. -19. -26. -30. -33. -34. -33. -33. -32. -33. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 151.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/15/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 222.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.54 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/15/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##