* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/14/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 23 21 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 23 21 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 27 24 21 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 37 38 41 36 30 28 23 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 7 3 1 1 0 4 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 241 246 243 246 234 245 247 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 149 147 144 142 142 142 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 41 38 41 44 41 44 45 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 8 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 28 9 1 -11 -17 -6 -23 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 0 7 -12 -3 10 15 11 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 671 618 566 524 483 398 346 312 294 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.8 151.2 151.6 151.9 152.2 153.0 153.9 154.6 155.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 23 25 24 23 29 33 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 27. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -9. -15. -21. -26. -30. -32. -32. -32. -32. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -11. -15. -19. -26. -31. -35. -38. -40. -39. -39. -38. -39. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.8 150.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/14/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 268.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/14/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##