* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/13/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 32 28 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 36 32 28 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 32 29 25 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 32 31 32 33 33 31 26 24 26 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 6 8 4 4 3 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 252 244 240 251 261 258 254 243 236 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 147 147 145 143 143 143 139 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 46 45 44 40 42 48 52 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 39 38 32 19 1 -5 -9 -15 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 16 28 17 18 22 -12 9 -4 -15 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 5 5 3 2 5 1 0 0 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 913 840 766 712 659 583 544 521 481 430 386 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.2 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.4 149.0 149.5 149.8 150.1 150.5 150.8 151.0 151.5 152.2 152.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 3 1 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 21 19 20 21 24 25 26 25 24 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -16. -20. -23. -26. -28. -29. -28. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -12. -14. -18. -21. -24. -26. -31. -33. -34. -33. -32. -30. -30. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.0 148.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/13/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 318.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/13/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##