* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/12/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 45 40 36 32 28 25 22 22 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 45 40 36 32 28 25 22 22 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 46 42 38 35 30 26 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 25 28 29 29 31 36 30 24 25 23 28 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 4 2 3 0 5 2 1 0 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 246 254 264 259 248 249 253 256 238 234 231 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 150 149 148 147 147 143 140 138 139 140 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 10 9 10 8 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 46 46 45 48 46 46 51 57 56 51 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 58 59 54 46 38 13 -11 -40 -30 -47 -42 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 23 11 -2 12 20 36 22 39 33 7 -16 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 0 2 2 2 1 -2 0 1 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1188 1112 1037 967 898 775 688 635 586 534 485 430 374 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.9 15.9 16.8 17.4 17.7 17.7 17.5 17.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.2 146.9 147.6 148.2 148.7 149.3 149.5 149.5 149.7 150.1 150.6 151.3 152.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 28 28 25 23 20 23 27 29 29 30 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -22. -24. -25. -25. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. -28. -28. -29. -31. -33. -36. -35. -34. -35. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.7 146.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/12/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 415.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.09 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/12/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##