* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/12/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 53 50 47 40 38 32 30 25 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 57 53 50 47 40 38 32 30 25 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 57 54 51 45 39 34 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 17 21 23 19 20 21 30 28 29 35 35 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 5 6 5 3 10 1 -1 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 222 236 250 246 265 252 245 243 241 242 255 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.7 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 149 148 148 148 148 146 139 135 133 131 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 43 43 45 45 49 49 49 49 48 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 15 15 14 14 12 12 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 51 51 52 59 51 39 10 -12 -49 -45 -64 -66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 55 13 0 10 7 38 43 25 26 23 3 -60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 1 5 5 5 2 0 1 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1373 1293 1213 1146 1080 982 925 888 895 950 1035 1156 1275 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.6 15.4 16.3 17.4 18.6 19.8 20.9 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.2 144.9 145.5 146.0 146.5 147.1 147.2 147.1 146.6 145.8 144.9 143.8 142.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 32 27 22 22 22 21 20 14 9 7 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -20. -23. -24. -24. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -13. -20. -22. -28. -30. -35. -37. -42. -46. -44. -42. -41. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 12.5 144.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/12/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 482.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.37 -1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.58 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 19.4% 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.8% 4.4% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/12/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##