* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/11/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 63 64 65 62 58 53 47 44 41 39 40 41 41 41 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 63 64 65 62 58 53 47 44 41 39 40 41 41 41 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 61 62 63 63 61 58 54 49 44 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 7 11 13 13 17 18 20 24 25 22 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 -4 0 1 2 4 4 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 234 243 241 240 269 269 260 248 242 237 232 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 156 156 153 151 150 150 148 147 145 142 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 52 51 49 48 50 53 54 56 55 57 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 14 13 13 13 12 12 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 43 49 51 50 49 44 39 27 -1 -28 -41 -35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 17 29 45 26 13 17 36 55 49 26 27 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1614 1526 1439 1366 1294 1158 1042 945 891 860 864 892 922 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 13.0 13.7 14.5 15.2 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 141.8 142.7 143.6 144.3 145.1 146.3 147.1 147.6 147.7 147.6 147.3 146.8 146.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 23 28 33 33 30 29 26 24 23 21 18 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 7. 3. -2. -8. -11. -14. -16. -15. -14. -14. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.1 141.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/11/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.61 9.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 8.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 6.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 10.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 6.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 403.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.46 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.42 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.5% 49.0% 45.3% 33.5% 24.4% 33.2% 17.4% 0.0% Logistic: 31.0% 46.1% 32.4% 25.8% 20.8% 16.4% 20.5% 5.4% Bayesian: 4.6% 54.1% 11.1% 4.0% 8.5% 8.0% 3.9% 0.2% Consensus: 19.0% 49.7% 29.6% 21.1% 17.9% 19.2% 13.9% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/11/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##