* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/11/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 57 59 61 63 60 58 52 51 49 48 48 46 46 45 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 57 59 61 63 60 58 52 51 49 48 48 46 46 45 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 55 55 56 58 58 56 52 48 44 42 39 36 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 3 2 6 10 12 14 17 22 21 22 24 19 25 21 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 4 2 0 -2 2 3 2 2 4 0 0 1 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 189 214 241 251 214 269 277 268 244 228 224 229 227 229 217 221 216 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 156 156 155 154 150 148 147 146 143 139 138 139 142 146 148 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 52 53 53 52 50 49 52 51 56 54 53 51 52 49 46 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 14 16 14 15 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 19 32 42 47 48 55 56 53 43 16 -4 -43 -21 -17 -9 24 46 200 MB DIV 4 9 21 24 25 13 28 26 53 68 75 29 12 14 9 -18 -24 700-850 TADV 5 2 0 0 0 -2 -2 0 1 4 3 2 0 -1 -4 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1743 1649 1557 1486 1417 1307 1197 1101 1036 1018 1028 1064 1100 1126 1114 1057 1027 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.2 12.8 13.7 14.6 15.6 16.5 17.2 17.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.6 141.6 142.5 143.3 144.0 145.2 146.0 146.4 146.5 146.1 145.6 145.0 144.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 3 1 2 5 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 21 25 31 32 31 25 19 17 14 12 13 13 13 16 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. -12. -11. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 10. 8. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.8 140.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/11/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.66 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 7.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 7.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 349.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.52 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 39% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.5% 43.1% 37.5% 25.8% 19.4% 38.7% 25.0% 17.1% Logistic: 24.5% 56.6% 43.0% 35.9% 16.3% 30.5% 23.2% 8.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 34.2% 3.6% 1.2% 1.9% 6.8% 8.2% 0.5% Consensus: 13.2% 44.6% 28.0% 20.9% 12.5% 25.3% 18.8% 8.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/11/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##